Mitigation Strategy on Reduction Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emission of Landuse Sector for the Province of Papua

. Studying the right strategy in the implementation of the mitigation of GHG emission reduction in an effort to control climate change caused by deforestation and forest degradation (REDD +) in Papua Province is an important step that must be done. Emission levels in Papua Province in 2010 was dominated by forestry sub-sector and other land use in the amount of 639,818,463 Ton CO2eq or approximately 99.8% of total GHG emissions of 640,737,952.64 Ton CO2eq. To analyze the implementation strategy of mitigation (REDD +) then the calculation of the level of carbon emission must be done first. The calculation of carbon emissions for this sub-sector is done with reference to the method that has been developed by the IPCC GL-2006. Meanwhile, to sub-sectors of forestry and other land use the calculation use the historical and forward-looking approach. The level of carbon emissions from forestry sub-sector accounted for 921,779,031.23 Ton CO 2 eq (historical method) and 1,052,683,205.46 Ton CO 2 eq (forward-looking method) mitigation program at the end of 2020. Strategy of mitigation action program is for carbon uptake and carbon storage stabilization. The mitigation scenario for forestry sub-sector capable of reducing emissions by 552,303,873 Ton CO 2 eq or by 52.47% of the total cumulative emissions at the end of 2020 (forward-looking method).


Papua
The province of Papua as part of Indonesia's tropical forest province has a forest area of 98.94% of its territory, which has been firmly incorporated into national plans to address the ACCEPTED -UNPROOFED ONLINE VERSION -2,000,000.00 4,000,000.00 6,000,000.00 8,000,000.00 APL HPK HP HPT KSA HL Hectar issue of GHG emissions reductions over the past few years through a low-carbon economic development task force . The idea of forming this future low-carbon economic development is expected to provide smart and wise consideration for policy makers in Papua in guarding and running the wheel of low-carbon economic development. The carbon emission and sequestration method uses the basic equation of the default emission factor of the National Development Planning Agency 2010 and data Activities used are sourced from digital data (spatial analysis of changes in land cover) or based on data of research conducted in Indonesia, especially Papua Province.

Result and discussion 3.1. Emission level/status
The Papua Provincial Government should immediately make an effort to change the paradigm that the rate of forest degradation will cause environmental degradation is not a mere crisis, but it can be an opportunity to recover and improve the environment while overcoming the economic crisis. The analysis of forest area based on its function is Conservation Forest

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The calculation of forest carbon emission and uptake ie Land cover change is activity data (DA), while emission factor (FE) is obtained with average approach of carbon stock for each class of land cover presented in Table 1 below: The condition of land cover change is activity data (DA), while the emission factor (FE) is obtained by the average approach of carbon stock for each class of land cover presented in Table  1. In calculating emissions, Formula (1) is modified as follows.

GHG Emissions = Land Cover Changes × {Previous Carbon Cover Backgrounds -Current Carbon
Reserve Coverage}.
The result of base year emission calculation is shown in the Table 2.

Emission calculation based on Historical approach
The projection of emissions with the Historical approach is linear projection by looking at the trend based on the base year period by analyzing the gradual changes of land cover based on the period of 2000-2003, 2003-2006, 2006-2009 and 2009-2011 so as to obtain a linear regression equation Approaching the existing condition, as shown in Figure 2.

Emission calculation based on Forward Looking approach
The projection of emission levels in this approach is calculated based on land cover in 2011 which is overlaid with the spatial plan of Papua Province RTRW 2011-2021. The emission calculation based on this approach is the same as in the base year emissions calculation, ie the area of land cover change multiplied by the carbon stock of each type of land cover that changes.
From the calculation based on the two approaches we can see that the value of emissions with forward looking approach in 2021 is 1.104.747.151.77 Ton CO2eq higher than the historical approach of 970.163.531,65 Ton CO2eq. In the picture below, presented the results of emission projection with forward looking approach.   Figure 5 is a comparison graph of the base-year carbon emission values and emissions based on historical and forward looking approaches. Carbon emission rates calculated through historical and forward looking approach are referred to as BaU (Business as Usual) emissions or estimates of GHG emission and projection rates with scenarios without local government policy interventions and mitigation efforts.

Emission reduction scenario
Efforts to be taken in reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation are through several mitigation action mitigation scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions such as the Table 5 below: Based on the mitigation action group described above, the calculation of cumulative emissions up to 2020 can be known that in Papua Province can implement mitigation actions of forest carbon storage stability and increased forest carbon uptake was able to contribute to the reduction of emissions as shown in the following figure: The contribution of all mitigation actions in Papua Province as a whole will reduce the comatative emissions by 552,303,873 tons CO2-eq or 52.47% at the end of the 2020 mitigation period. Papua Province through mitigation action planning period assumes that the implementation of all mitigation actions goes according to optimistic scenario, meaning that all planned mitigation actions can be implemented with maximum results during the mitigation period.

Conclusion
The level of carbon emissions in Papua Province by 2020 is 1,052,683,205.46 Ton CO2eq (forwad looking method) and 921.779.031,23 Ton CO2eq (historical method). Mitigation action of GHG emission reduction is as follows: Emission reduction activities for this sector are: Increase forest carbon uptake through activities and Stabilization of forest carbon stocks. If these two scenarios can be implemented, the GHG emissions that can be derived from this sector are 52.47% or 552.303.873 Ton CO2eq at the end of the 2020 mitigation period.